This study develops and validates risk prediction models for permanent hypocalcemia following total thyroidectomy (TT) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Hypocalcemia is a common complication of TT, impacting post-surgical quality of life.
Key Findings:
- Study Population: Data from 92 patients with PTC undergoing TT were analyzed.
- Risk Factors Identified: Univariate and multivariate analyses found significant correlations between permanent hypocalcemia and parathyroid hormone (PTH), calcium (Ca), and phosphorus (P) levels at postoperative month 1.
- Two Predictive Models:
- Model 1: Uses IM PTH, IM Ca, and IM P levels for risk assessment.
- Model 2: Incorporates tumor, node, metastasis (TNM) staging in addition to the indicators in Model 1.
- Performance Metrics:
- Both models demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with areas under the curve (AUCs) above 0.80 in training and validation sets.
- Calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and actual hypocalcemia incidence.
Conclusion:
Model 1 is simpler and more clinically practical, enabling early identification of high-risk patients, ensuring timely intervention and appropriate calcium supplementation strategies. These findings provide valuable guidance for postoperative care and improving long-term patient outcomes.
