Background:
Computed tomography (CT) scans are widely used diagnostic tools, with approximately 93 million procedures performed on 62 million patients in the U.S. in 2023. However, CT imaging exposes patients to ionizing radiation, a known risk factor for cancer.
Objective:
To estimate the projected lifetime cancer risk linked to CT scan radiation exposure in the U.S. population based on imaging data from 2023.
Methods:
This analysis utilized a large, multicenter dataset from the University of California San Francisco International CT Dose Registry (2018–2020). Patient-level data, including age, sex, scan type, and radiation dose, were used to model organ-specific radiation exposure. The study applied National Cancer Institute software based on BEIR VII risk models to calculate cancer risk and project national incidence rates.
Key Findings:
- Total CT scans (2023): 93 million
- Estimated patients scanned: 61.5 million
- Projected radiation-induced cancers: ~103,000 cases (90% uncertainty range: 96,400–109,500)
- High-risk groups: Children had higher per-scan risk, but adults accounted for 91% of total projected cancers due to greater usage
- Most common projected cancers: Lung (22,400), colon (8,700), leukemia (7,900), bladder (7,100), and breast cancer (5,700 in women)
- High-risk scan categories: Abdomen and pelvis CTs caused 37% of all projected radiation-induced cancers
Conclusions:
If current CT imaging trends and radiation dose levels continue, CT scan radiation could contribute to 5% of all annual cancer diagnoses in the U.S. This highlights the urgent need for optimized CT use and radiation dose reduction strategies in medical imaging.
SEO Keywords:
CT scan cancer risk, radiation-induced cancer, medical imaging risks, lifetime cancer projections, CT radiation exposure, U.S. healthcare cancer risk, abdomen CT cancer, pediatric CT safety, radiology cancer statistics 2023
